MARKET WEEK AHEAD 30 MARCH TO 3 APR 2020

Key factors to keep you busy next week

1. Corona concern

Till now approx 7 lac people affected by COVID - 19.  More than 31000 deaths reported..
In india figure crossed above 1000 death 27..This week is very important from market point of view.

Investors will continue to monitor updates related to COVID-19. Global  economy is like to face recession,  experts feel. Even govts has announced several relief packages.


2. Stimulus for industries.

Cental govt.announced relief package for poors and daily wage earners who are said to be most sufferer from lock down. RBI announced liquidity stimulus with 75 bps rate cut and 100 bps in CRR.
Experts waiting for stimulus for industries.


3.Auto Sales.

At a time when it was moving towards normalcy, sales in the automobile sector hit a roadblock in March due to the COVID-19. As the government announced a nationwide lockdown, the sector is expected to feel the heat for a longer period now, experts feel. 

4. Crude and Rupee

Oil prices have been lingering around 17-year low levels for over a week now due to low demand globally, which is the biggest lottery for the government if they store it the maximum or book in a one-year futures contract. But we need to see how much the government has to spend on economy due to pandemic crisis.

India imports around 85 percent of oil requirement. International benchmark Brent crude futures posted a fifth consecutive weekly loss to close tad below $25 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee after closing at lowest ever level of 76.29 a dollar on March 23, strengthened by 144 paise in last four days due to government measures and RBI's liquidity stimulus. The major depreciation in rupee is largely dependent on the severity of virus spread and till then it is expected to remain in range of 74-76 a dollar.

5.FII selling

The FII outflow receded in the week gone by, as they net sold Rs 7,165 crore worth of shares against major sell-off in previous four consecutive weeks. In fact, they turned net buyers on March 27 to the tune of Rs 355.78 crore after consistent selling in previous 23 sessions.

Hence, whether the intensity of selling has really cooled off or not will be closely watched in coming sessions given the wide-spreading pandemic globally.

On the contrary, DIIs remained net buyers for fifth consecutive week, net purchasing more than Rs 4,300 crore of shares last week.

6.Technical view

The Nifty50 closed with a percent loss for the week, but formed bullish candle on weekly scale as closing was much higher than opening levels, while on March 27, there was a bearish candle formation as closing was lower than opening.

Experts feel the broader structure still looks weak though there was a recovery in last four consecutive sessions.

7.F&O cues

The Nifty started the April series with just one crore shares, which is the lowest open interest at inception in more than a decade. As it is the beginning of a new series, option data is scattered at various strikes.

Maximum Call open interest was at 10,000 then 9,000 strike while maximum Put open interest was at 7,500 then 8,000 strike. Minor Call writing was seen at 9,500 followed by 10,000 strike while no major activity was seen on the Put side.

The major open interest concentration is placed at Put 8,000 and Call 9,000 and 9,500 strikes for the coming week. We expect the Nifty to find it tough to move beyond 9,500 in the ongoing recovery,

8.Corporate action and macro data

Here are key corporate actions taking place in the coming week:

Fiscal deficit and infrastructure output for February, and external debt for Q4FY20 will be released on March 31, while Markit Manufacturing PMI for March will be announced April 2.

Global cues

Here are key global data points to watch out for next week:

(Source- moneycontrol)